Saturday, September 8, 2012

Romney Has Bounce Envy as Obama Numbers Surge


Mitt Romney received no bounce from last week's Republican National Convention, as the 46% of registered voters who supported him in Aug. 31-Sept. 3 Daily tracking is essentially the same as the 47% who preferred him in Aug. 24-27 tracking, the four days preceding the convention.

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Mr. Obama has gained two or three points in polls conducted essentially halfway through his convention suggests that his gains could eventually be larger, perhaps on the order of five points, once the surveys fully reflect post-convention data. Typically, the bounce grows over the course of the convention, peaking in interviews conducted just a day or two after it.
. . . What’s a bit more worrisome for Mr. Romney is that Gallup’s reporting of the head-to-head results in its poll occurs over a lengthy seven-day window, meaning that only a minority of the interviews in the poll were conducted before the major speeches at the Democratic convention.
In fact, most of the interviews in the poll were conducted just after the Republican convention in Tampa, Fla., a period in which Mr. Romney should have been enjoying a convention bounce of his own.
~ Nate Silver on 538 Blog, New York Times



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