Showing posts with label numbers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label numbers. Show all posts

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Big Flop ~ Tea Party Day of Resistance

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Source: Florida Today Video

Breitbart
Conservatives and Tea Partiers plan to reignite the flame of 2010 next Saturday at rallies in cities and towns across America. The event is titled the "Day of Resistance," and head organizer Dustin Stockton told Breitbart News that February 23 was picked as the date for several reasons.
“The first is one which I’ve been getting ruthlessly abused for and that is because the AR-15 caliber is .223,” Stockton said in a phone interview. “It’s also the day that we raised the flag in Iwo Jima and it’s also a Saturday, so people who work regular hours can also attend.”

From Right Wing News
We’re calling on Tea Partiers, moderate Republicans, Libertarians and even moderate Democrats to stand up one month from today, on the 23rd of February and say, “No more!” Right Wing News is joining Dustin Stockton, Western Representation PAC and The Tea Party.net in calling for rallies all across the nation next month on the 23rd. It’ll be a Day of Resistance where gun owners and patriots can peacefully gather and show Barack Obama, the media, and the knockkneed Republicans in Congress that we may have lost a battle last November, but we haven’t lost the war. Don’t meekly give up your 2nd Amendment rights when you can stand with us and RESIST!

Was the day a flop? Haven't seen any news on anything about it
~ Judy A. on Day of Resistance Volunteer Facebook Page

Arkansas:

The rally is supposed to be on the state capital grounds in Little Rock. Isn't concealed carry prohibited there?
Like · · February 12 at 5:14pm
Little Rock, Arkansas - Day of Resistance
No weapons are allowed on the state capital grounds
February 19 at 7:39am via mobile · Like
~ Little Rock, Arkansas, Day of Resistance Facebook

I was there today... actually thought the turnout would have been better given it was a gorgeous Saturday. Thanks to the speakers and the others who attended.
~ Little Rock Day of Resistance Facebook

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Little Rock, Arkansas

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Alaska:

There was about 8 folks who participated in some degree or another.. thanks to those who joined us. Thanks to those who honked and waved their support.
~ Alaska Day of Resistance Delta Junction Rally

I was disappointed at the turn out. I should not be. It has always been the 1% who fight for the other 99%, I suspect it has always been so!
~ Alaska Day of Resistance Delta Junction Rally

(Wasilla, Alaska) Almost 200 people showed up to hear the speakers, and to enjoy the breezy weather and the gorgeous view of the Chugach Mountains in the background of Wasilla Lake. It was about 23̊F with a 20 mph east wind off the lake.
The proceedings began with a moment of silence in respect to the Founding Fathers and the Framers of the Constitution followed by a pledge of allegiance to the Flag. Typical Tea Party fare.
It was commented that while today’s weather may have been a little brisk, it was nothing like the experience of the Continental soldiers under General George Washington at Valley Forge.
. . . There were no protestors in favor of gun control present.
~ Examiner

The rally was wonderful! About 110 people were in attendance. The guest speaker's messages touched chords in the hearts of the people. We had an open mic in which people could voice what was on their heart. The liitle chidten were wonderful with the pledge and the young ladies lifted beautiful voices! Praise the Lord!
~ Anchorage,Alaska Day of Resistance Facebook

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Arizona:

What a successful day we had here in Phoenix! At least 1500 and amazing speakers! Thanks to everyone who came to the Day of Resistance! More pictures to come!
~ Arizona Day of Resistance Facebook Page

Loved it but I was disappointed with the turnout...hoping for a few million with the dire state our country is in:(
~ Arizona Day of Resistance Facebook Page

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California

Over 700 proud patriotic and peaceful Californians standing up for our second amendment.
~ Sacramento Day of Resistance Facebook

Hmmm . . . 700? Really?

About 400 to 500 people gathered in Capitol Park today for a "Day of Resistance" rally set to correspond with similar gatherings across the country.
~ Modesto Bee

There were only about 200 people. Maybe 250. I was there.
~ Comment on Sacramento Bee

Pre-Rally Warning:

This is a re-post but I will keep bumping it up. The anti-gun nuts are going to be looking for ANYTHING to trip us up and discredit us. The media will be filming EVERYTHING! Dress appropriately, refrain from profanity, be prepared for questions from the media, avoid confrontation (let the Police handle it), film ANYTHING that looks suspicious, DO NOT OPEN CARRY A WEAPON TO THIS EVENT, YOU WILL BE ARRESTED! And most importantly, have fun while getting our message across!
~ Denver Day of Resistance Facebook

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Colorado:

Any news coverage? From what I see on Google News (so far) this was the biggest rally in the country.
~ Denver Day of Resistance Facebook Page

State Patrol estimated the crowd at about 400 people. All of them were passionate about protecting what they see as an assault against the Second Amendment.
~ Fox News Denver

I'm confused, dident we just have a rally with (my guess) 1000 people just a few blocks from at least 2 tv stations? I can not find anything about it on any of the news pages. I can find a lot about some guy named oscor tho.
~ Denver Day of Resistance Facebook Page

Fox 31 played it down a bit, but at least they reported it. People at the rally say there were between 1000 - 2000 people there.
~ Denver Day of Resistance Facebook Page




Pre-Rally Colorado Open Carry Debate:

Absolutely no open carrying will be tolerated. Concealed carry is acceptable if you have your permit and it remains concealed…
~ Organizer, Denver Day of Resistance Facebook Page

No open carry? Is that against CO state law?
Why only one city? That is strange.
If it is troopers there enforcing the law, they should enforce STATE law.
~ Denver Day of Resistance Facebook Page

State Patrol has jurisdiction over the property at the State Capital (which is why THEY are security inside, etc). As it is state property, they limit firearms on said property.
As for Denver, without reviewing the ordinance, I'd bet firearms are required to be unloaded.
I see no reason to give the lame stream media footage of everyone wandering around with firearms. I saw a comment that empty holsters would signify legislation "disarming" us. .kinda liked the idea.
~ Denver Day of Resistance Facebook Page

How does the State Patrol prohibit "open carry" when the Colorado Constitution expressly guarantees everything except "concealed carry"?
~ Denver Day of Resistance Facebook Page

IT IS local ordinance in Denver County, make sure we abide by local laws and maintain respect for an HONORABLE CAUSE, please do not make ISSUE and nitpick and lose focus on the BIGGER picture,...
~ Denver Day of Resistance Facebook Page

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Florida

(Melbourne, FL) Nearly 200 people gathered to show support for their right to keep and bear arms today at Pineapple Park in Eau Gallie.
~ Florida Today

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Gun rights supporters at Sarasota’s “Day of Resistance” rally, held Saturday
at the bayfront. More than 50 people attended.
~ Gun-Writer Blog on The Herald Tribune
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Pro 2nd Amendment Road-side Rally
Bring signs and American Flags
LET YOUR VOICE BE HEARD
DIRECTIONS:
The Rally is on the WEST-SIDE of HWY 19... across from the Farmers Market.
There are 2 ways to get there:
1) PARK... at the BIG LOT'S SHOPPING CENTER...then cross highway at the TRENTON AVE... STOP-LIGHT... WALK NORTH 100yrds.
2) PARK... at PIZZA HUT/CHILLI'S SHOPPING CENTER...WALK SOUTH ON SIDEWALK 300 yrds.
LOOK FOR AMERICAN FLAGS...
SEE YOU THERE!!!!!
~ Florida Nature Coast Day of Resistance Facebook

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Georgia:

Got to Georgia State Capitol at 11:05AM and no one was there so had an easy time parking. After about 30 minutes of walking alone in front of the Capitol steps with my Impeach Obama sign, a reporter came over from an 11 Alive News Van (WXIA Atlanta) and asked if he could interview me on camera which he did do. Then he left and drove away. A couple of police cars then arrived and parked across the street watching me, I guessed for my protection. It was a cold and windy day. I was about to leave when one man joined me asking if I had another sign which I did not (note to self). After another 30 minutes or so we were joined by two more Patriots. So Georgia was represented by us four. My interview was not shown later on the new; no surprise there. (Just watched Sunday news shows on what I call Susan Rice day where the "news" media promotes the lies of the week of the Obama administration). All in all it would probably do as much good to put on sackcloth, go to the Capital, and carry a sign "Repent. The End is Near". That may have more impact,but, I doubt it. Obama supporters did not heckle us, they politely asked if they could take our pictures, as a novelty maybe, the last of our kind.
~ from National Protests Against Obama Page, link via WCWatch on Daily Kos

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National Day of Resistance, Atlanta, GA
source: facebook

So, i guess now we know what CNN was doing there....
Manufacturing sentiment... Apparently our rally today was overrun with Klansman...
~ Atlanta, GA, Day of Resistance Facebook











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Illinois:

I made it into the square today. The sidewalks are pretty crappy still. Also, I was just made aware that you need a permit to picket and march in Macomb (sorry, I'm new to all this). So, I will be calling off the picket/ march. If you have already made posters, please bring them for photo ops. There is a slight chance WGEM news might show up to the meet and greet, and the posters might be nice for that as well. I am terribly sorry about this, but I am confident that we can still make a statement and get to make some new friends.
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Hello everyone! Just wanted to let you guys know the caterer I had lined up, fell through. I can supply weenies and buns and condiments if someone is willing to bring a bbq and grill em? The VFW will have drinks available for purchase. Let me know. Thank you!
~ Macomb, Illinois Day of Resistance




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Kansas:

in Liberal, Kansas, on a cold cold day 143 people gathered to support the 2nd Amenement several speakers and leaders of our city joined in. Seward is the first county in Kansas to support the 2nd Amendment with it's own resulation.
~ Day of Resistance Volunteer Page

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Kentucky:



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Missouri:

Due to it being winter, Landreth Park restrooms are "closed," Earlier this week I called to see if they could be opened, and after several phone calls they will not be open. Due to only getting a response within the last 10 mins, it is 4:30 on Friday, I have no means of securing portable facilities. Please plan according.
~ SW Missouri Day of Resistance Facebook

We are asking people not to OPEN carry, for several reasons. The two principal ones involving the media message we want to convey to the broader public and the issue of insurance coverage. We are hoping in the future to be able to organize an open carry rally but for now, please no OPEN carry at the event on Saturday.
~ SW Missouri Day of Resistance Facebook

I would suggest that those who wish to carry openly, to demonstrate their support for the 2nd Amendment, NOT to carry loaded weapons or have ammunition on them. This would be prevent anyone from prosecution, should any ordinance be passed at the last minute, and we do NOT need any accidental discharges at this event.
~ SW Missouri Day of Resistance Facebook

Just my two cents here, this rally is not for showing off your fancy new pistol. It is about sending a message to all of the anti gun group, and showing them that we are capable of controlling ourselves for an event to peacefully demonstrate our feelings towards gun control. People whining about open carry can carry any other time you want, arguing and complaining just sets the cause further back. Have some respect for the wishes of the organizers by following their rules, otherwise just don't attend!
~ SW Missouri Day of Resistance Facebook

Was it 'whining' when our founders sent the Declaration of Independence to the king?
~ SW Missouri Day of Resistance Facebook

The point of the rally is to oppose gun restrictions, not prove how badass we are with our guns.
~ SW Missouri Day of Resistance Facebook

I won't be ruining this experience for anyone. So please do not assume that that is my goal. I intend to use this opportunity to organize local men who are willing and able to do the things that will soon be necessary to do. So don't think I will be causing any issues. If anything I am on your side, we can agree on a few things I'm sure-the things we disagree about most likely will not destroy the solidarity we are striving for.
~ SW Missouri Day of Resistance Facebook

Don't forget the squeaky wheel gets the grease. There are more wheels than you can possibly imagine that need no grease and are ready to participate in a very positive and respectful manner. All of you squeaky wheels, be respectful of the event organizers wishes or stay home. The priority is publicly showing support for the second amendment, not publicly showing off your rifles and sidearms.
~ SW Missouri Day of Resistance Facebook

For all those who continue to post references to the recent debate about open-carry and who use words like "whining", "squeaky wheels" and other pejoratives: Thank you for trying to marginalize and ridicule those whose viewpoints were not the same as yours. We get enough of that from the Liberal side of the political spectrum.
~ SW Missouri Day of Resistance Facebook

I thank everyone for their research into Joplin Ordinances and Statutes. Yes there is No direct Open Carry Ordnance. I was required by the City to get Insurance, and due to my policy. I being the event organizer, and due to the Insurance.
I cannot condone and promote open carry at this event.
~ Organizer, SW Missouri Day of Resistance Facebook

LOL... understood. You are officially not responsible for any actions we, on our own as adult citizens, may choose to take.
. . . And I still STRONGLY suggest that any who DO chose to exercise their Rights also exercise some good sense and leave any ammo at home. We are not looking to get into any gun battles with authorities. If they attempt to violate my rights in any way, I will not resist and will comply... and they will be cutting me a fat check when my lawyers finish with them. We do not need altercations, and certainly no accidental discharges. Imagine the propaganda our political opponents would make of such a thing happening.... it would not be pretty. Ideally the media will only be able to report that a large number of people made a peaceful demonstration and acted responsibly... including those who exercise their second amendment rights.
~ SW Missouri Day of Resistance Facebook

I do not appreciate the attacks on other people that I am seeing. I have stepped up to organize this events. This is a public event in a City park. I expect other people to be there to use the parks recreation facilities, I want to be respectful to them and be non intimidating to them. If this were on PRIVATE Property like I would of liked it to be originally then, we wouldn't be having the technicality arguments about law and ordnance's .
To the people committing to arguing semantics, this is a PEACEFUL event you are turning it into something more than its not.
The purpose is to EDUCATE people, and to do it in a peaceful non threatening manner.
People seem to be taking it above and beyond my intent of Event Organizer.
I peacefully ask those who are arguing and attacking those involved to please calm down we are trying to accomplish this together.
The Politicians think we are ignorant idiots, and they think we are out of control people who need more laws, and from the actions of the people in this forum I think you are proving them right.
My purpose is to show them how intelligent and non-idiotic WE are.
If people continue to act idiotic and are defeating the purpose, I will ask you please don't show up on 2/23
Thank you
~ Organizer, SW Missouri Day of Resistance Facebook

I don't understand why this is turning into a circus.
It seems people can't or won't follow simple requests.
This is beginning to look a feeding frenzy in a lions den, with no control and no direction.
Everyone is sucking the life out of this rally arguing semantics. I am trying to unite everyone in a common cause, yet people are driving wedges. I am trying to provide some form of direction. But no one can listen.
I get better cooperation from children than I find here...
I am not trying to run a campaign. This is a simple rally.
I am tired of being the bad guy.
~ Organizer, SW Missouri Day of Resistance Facebook

Anyways, a turn out of at least 150 plus....
~ Joplin, Missouri, Day of Resistance Facebook

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Minnesota:

We were considering wearing hunting gear and bringing our hunting rifles, which happen to be black! Would this alarm or concern anyone?
~ St. Cloud, Minnesota, Day of Resistance Facebook

I just talked to the police LT. Rifles and Shotguns are not allowed to be in the open within the city limits of St. Cloud. It is a city law. Handguns are Ok. but no rifles. I am sorry, and I understand it doesnt make sense. But we are the law abiding gun owners of America.
~ St. Cloud, Minnesota, Day of Resistance Facebook



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New York

I was quite disappointed in the turn out in Buffalo today at Niagara Square...I would guess maybe 50 people at the most attended (and that is probably a gross overestimate). We drove 52 miles to attend the rally to show our support...I would think more people that lived closer (who didn't have such a long distance to drive) would have shown up for something as important as this....yes it was cold (even though we dressed warmly)...but we need to unite and let the government know we are serious! By the way, there were some very good impromptu speeches made at the rally.
~ Western New York Day of Resistance Facebook

Where is everyone?
~ Western New York Day of Resistance Facebook

I was very alone in Corning N.Y. today. I honestly thought more people cared about our 2nd Ammendment. My Father, who could not attend due to a doctors appointment, called and asked how is was going. I sent him a picture of just me standing there. I think he cried a little, I know I did.
~ Western New York Day of Resistance Facebook

Very sad turnout for Albany, the capitol of the state that just pushed through one of the worst offenders of our 2nd amendment. Let's hope Thursday proves much more productive and better organized or we are fighting a losing battle.
~ Western New York Day of Resistance Facebook

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North Carolina:

Start gathering your American flags to wave at the event Saturday! Red, white and blue only... No rebel flags!
~ Lenoir City, NC, Day of Resistance Facebook

T-minus 15 minutes to start and 40+ people scene.
~ Lenoir City, NC, Day of Resistance Facebook

Lenoir City, NC:
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Near Charlotte, NC:
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source: facebook

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Oklahoma:

More than 100 people gathered at LaFortune Park Saturday to defend Americans' Constitutional right to bear arms. This was part of the nationwide "Day of Resistance".
"There's always going to be violence in this world," said co-organizer James Miller. "Whether you label it with a gun or a knife or a fist or whatever kind of violence you want to call it, it's just violence in general. Outlawing a weapon won't change it."
Signs, music, flags, a petition, and even a few guns were present at the event.
~ Tulsa Channel 8

I really enjoyed the rally, but it kinda bummed me out to not see very many people there that were around my age (29) not a bad thing it just bothered me a little bit.
~ Tulsa Day of Resistance Facebook Page

Thank you so much for the GREAT rally today! Yes, the crowd could have been bigger. Yes, there could have been carnival rides and a tractor pull. There was, however, great speakers and a wonderful group of people from diverse back grounds all gathered for a common purpose: to show support for the Constitution and for those that hold office and respect the Constitution. GOOD JOB!
~ Tulsa OK Day of Resistance Facebook

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I was very disappointed after attending the Day of Resistance rally at LaFortune ball park in Tulsa. The attendance was a scant two, maybe 250 people! Thinking what I had to go through to get there, I understood why so few people showed up. I sent 3 email requests to the DOR organizer site asking for information such as WHERE is LFortune park? NO RESPONSE! Nowhere was there one single posting of its address - just LaFortune Park! I looked for LaFortune Park in two different phone books, called the Tulsa police (non emergency # and got no answer), called LaFortune golf course - # disconnected, looked in Tulsa city map and found no such place. Finally when we got into Tulsa, we stopped at a QT, asked and got the address!!!!! WHY DIDN'T THE ORGANIZERS POST THE PARK'S ADDRESS? Did they assume that everybody knows where the part is?! I'll bet there were plenty others who gave up because they too couldn'd find where the park is! I highly recommend a much improved organization for the next rally, if there's going to be one! I would help.
~ Tulsa OK Day of Resistance Facebook

Holding an antique early 20th century rifle at his hip, longtime Tulsa resident Alfred B. West had one singular message to relay to lawmakers he suspects are attempting to infringe on his right to own firearms.
"They ain't going to get my guns," West said. "If (politicians) in Washington D.C. get their way, my gun will be illegal."
The former Iraq War veteran was one of many who expressed similar concerns during the national Day of Resistance rally held at LaFortune Park Saturday afternoon to show their support for the U.S. Constitution and right to bear arms.
An estimated 200 people attended the event held in conjunction with other gatherings across the country to oppose recent gun-control legislation proposals in response to several mass shootings in recent months.
~ TulsaWorld

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South Carolina



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Tennessee:



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The largest rally in Tennessee is expected to be in Sevierville.
At the rally gun owners will band together to protect their rights.
. . . David Pierce says he's an average guy who owns a few guns. He had the idea to organize the Sevierville rally because of his concerns.
"If you disarm the citizens, then the government takes over. You have tyranny and people are helpless," Pierce explained.
He says when he started planning he expected it to be a small gathering.
"Figured I'd get 50 or 60 people to come," he said.
But then the Sevier County Tea Party got involved.
"It's gone gangbusters in a very short amount of time," said Steve Osborn, with the tea party.
Attendance is now expected to be at least 500 people from all corners of East Tennessee.
~ WATE story

A great rally in Sevierville today. We absolutely must stay together and committed to our 2nd Amendment rights!!
~ East TN Day of Resistance in Sevierville

Perhaps not the largest in Tennessee after all . . .

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source: facebook

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Pennsylvania

We will look kinda dumb with only 13 of us so get the word out.... what ya waiting on... move your asses...
~ York, PA, Day of Resistance Facebook

York, PA:




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New Hampshire

We'll be back in April, on a Monday, blasting music, waving signs with a flag on a rifle, right as they all come down the steps to leave for the day. If that doesn't send a tingle up thier spines nothing will.
And we'll invite the gov to be a speaker, just so she can stand and face us all and tell it to our face. Her and others in govt that may oppose liberty are welcome to come and give testimony to thier peers. Come face us, tell us again how we need to be dissarmed, controled, brought to our knees before you to worship the government and beg for a piece of cake from our overlords.
~ New Hampshire Day of Resistance Facebook



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Texas:





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Virginia

As someone who has participated in every conservative rally held in Washington, DC, starting with the million strong 9/12 march in 2009 and every T-Party rally since, I am astonished that there is no "Day of Resistance" to be held in either Washington or Virginia. I signed up at the very beginning and never back from anyone. I'm really shocked.......
~ Day of Resistance Organizer Facebook Page

We went there at 12 noon......There weren't any people there....just the General Assembly members leaving the Capitol. Who was in charge of this?
~ Central Virginia Day of Resistance Facebook

At 12:00 there were only 4 people there, but about 30 more were there around 12:30
~ Organizer, Central Virginia Day of Resistance Facebook

Protest in Richmond Virginia Today
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Sunday, November 11, 2012

What Happened to the Romney Landslide?

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source: Media Matters

Previous Post:
Snark Amendment: Republicans Predict Romney Landslide

I said when I gave those predictions that if we have the same turnout pattern we had in ’08, obviously Obama’s going to win. And then I went on to say that wouldn’t happen. I said ’08 was an excrescence(?); it was an outlier year and in ’10 it went back to normal. Well, I was wrong. ’08 was not an outlier year.
~ Pundit Dick Morris on Fox News via Washington Post

Rove argued that Obama won with a smaller popular vote and a smaller margin of victory than in the 2008 election against Sen. John McCain. Instead of expanding voters, Rove argued, Obama "suppressed the vote" by demonizing former Gov. Mitt Romney and encouraging people not to vote.
"President Obama has become the first president in history to win a second term with a smaller percentage of the vote than he did in the first term," Rove said.
"But he won Karl, he won!" Fox News host Megyn Kelly interjected.
~ Politico

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For weeks prior to the election, Fox News has been giving valuable air time to pollsters and pundits who predicted a Romney “landslide.”
These projections were in stark contrast to reputable poll results that were used in other media outlets; however, Fox News viewers were led to believe that the other polls were “skewed” against Mitt Romney. It turns out Fox News was skewed toward self-promoting “experts” who were universally wrong about their predictions.
The network extensively featured Dick Morris who predicted an overwhelming Romney win with 325 electoral votes and a strong popular vote margin. Morris was spectacularly wrong in his election analysis, as he has been for much of his career.
. . . Joining Morris in eating humble pie was Karl Rove, known as “Bush’s brain.” . . . In the end, Rove looked utterly foolish as the President won Ohio by almost two percentage points.
. . . It might be time for Fox News to find some other consultants to interview as viewers will soon tire of being played for fools.
~ Jeff Crouere on Bayou Buzz

From Michael Barone, Famous Conservative Political Analyst
The results are in and I was wrong when I predicted that Mitt Romney would win 315 electoral votes. For those of you who sent in nasty emails and for those who sent in reasoned arguments that I was wrong, please be assured that I will be on a diet of crow for some time. For those who sent in positive or thankful emails, remember that none of us wants to live in a country where one party wins every election even though we tend to wish our party would win every time, and so disappointment is a necessary attribute of living in an electoral republic.
. . . An electoral vote lead of 332-206, the likely outcome, is pretty wide given the narrowness of the popular vote margin; George W. Bush led John Kerry 51%-48% in the popular vote in 2004 and won the electoral college by only 286-252. But that is how our system works, and all the players and observers knew that going in. Including me. And, by the way, if you didn’t hear me before, I was just plain wrong.
. . . I take some pleasure in finding I have been wrong, because it’s an opportunity to learn more. As I prowl through the 2012 election statistics I will have an opportunity to learn much more about America and where we are today. A nation dissatisfied with the results of a Democratic president, Democratic Senate and Republican House has decided to return a Democratic president, Democratic Senate and Republican House. Lots to learn for all of us.


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. . . this wasn't simply a case of partisans rooting for their side and letting that enthusiasm color their analysis. What was so unusual was there was no polling data to support the idea of a Romney Landslide. None. Zero. It did not exist. Instead, this was a school of conservative pundits incapable of imaging the president being re-elected, and incapable of imaging Obama not losing in a humiliating electoral rout.
~ Eric Boehlert on Media Matters

In short, the Right used ideology as the intellectual underpinning of their projections, while everyone else used facts. Nate Silver isn’t a mystic or the modern incarnation of Nostradamus – he’s an extraordinarily thorough polling analyst who bases predictions on a formula that accounts for real world margins of error and reporting discrepancies. It isn’t perfect, but the methodology is pretty airtight when it comes to projecting accurate odds. That’s why every half decent political analyst took Silver’s projections seriously and discounted the Right wing noise machine when it came to picking a winner.
This theme of fantasy vs reality goes far deeper than picking the winner in Presidential elections. It goes to the heart of what now constitutes conservatism in America, and why it is in perpetual decline.
~ Ben Cohen on The Daily Bantor


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Peggy Noonan's Non-Apology Apology For Being Wrong, via Wonkette
President Obama did not lose, he won. It was not all that close. There was enthusiasm on his side. Mitt Romney’s assumed base did not fully emerge, or rather emerged as smaller than it used to be. He appears to have received fewer votes than John McCain. The last rallies of his campaign neither signaled nor reflected a Republican resurgence. Mr Romney’s air of peaceful dynamism was the product of a false optimism that, in the closing days, buoyed some conservatives and swept some Republicans. While GOP voters were proud to assert their support with lawn signs, Democratic professionals were quietly organizing, data mining and turning out the vote. Their effort was a bit of a masterpiece; it will likely change national politics forever. Mr. Obama was perhaps not joyless but dogged, determined, and tired.
Apart from those points, everything in my blog post of Nov. 5 stands.

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Romney voters, let me say a few words to you. Too many of you are only now beginning to see that for many months you have lived in a kind of informational and analytical bubble, shaped by conservative intellectual leaders who refused to fully and fairly process what the poll data was suggesting.
. . . But Romney voter, after all the necessary criticism of the conservative bubble regarding poll-analysis has been made, the truth is this: the most fundamental reason you remained in that bubble was your belief in your fellow citizens, in the general decency and common sense of the American public. Obama was so obviously bad, that you couldn’t believe that enough of your fellow citizens wouldn’t see it and act upon it.
. . . those who really look into your eyes will know it too: your bubble was built upon love.
And now, it is popped.
~ Carl Scott at First Things

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It's time for Karl Rove to float away in his balloon
. . . You see, a good political strategist has to be willing to listen dispassionately to what the data tell him. He does not yell angrily at that data, like a distraught husband refusing to believe that his wife just left him. In that moment, Rove exposed himself as the petty figure that he is.
As Dorothy Gale, D-Kansas, famously put it, “Why, you’re not a wizard at all, you’re just a man! And you’re a very bad man for pretending to be a wizard.”
And after that, as I recall, the defrocked wizard floated away in a balloon, unable to steer a new direction because “I don’t know how it works!”
~ Jay Bookman, Atlanta Journal-Constitution

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In truth, Romney was a perfect embodiment of the current GOP. As much as the Republican Party is a radical party, and a nearly all-white party, it has also become the Fantasyland Party. It’s an isolated and gated community impervious to any intrusions of reality from the “real America” it solipsistically claims to represent. This year’s instantly famous declaration by the Romney pollster Neil Newhouse that “we’re not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact-checkers” crystallized the mantra of the entire GOP.
. . . (Karl) Rove’s remarkably graphic public meltdown on Fox News—babbling gibberish about how his Ohio numbers showed a path for Romney even after the election was lost—marked not just the end of his careers as a self-styled political brainiac and as a custodian of hundreds of millions of dollars in super-PAC money. It was an epic on-camera dramatization of his entire cohort’s utter estrangement from reality.
. . . Michael Barone, the once-respected co-author of The Almanac of American Politics who in 2008 compared Sarah Palin to FDR and who this year abandoned his fact-based standard for a faith-based standard underestimating minority turnout; he predicted a 315 electoral-vote victory for Romney. Like Rove, Barone called nearly every battleground state wrong. (The professional pollster most admired by the right, the GOP-leaning Rasmussen, didn’t bat much higher.) (Nate) Silver got all 50 states right.
~ Frank Rich on New York Mag

Frank Luntz, Republican Strategist
“Look– the published polls that the Romney campaign and the Republican establishment were trashing day after day turned out to be accurate. And all the polls that are being done for the Republican establishment– I know that the House candidates who lost were shocked at what happened, the Senate, Republicans were supposed to gain seats they actually lost…
“This is a bad day for Republican pollsters, and it’s something that they should be held accountable for. You have to tell your clients the truth, and you have to be accurate. And to miss so many states and to be this far off, your Fox News viewers ought to be outraged, because day in and day out they were told that Mitt Romney was going to win, and the fact is Ohio was ​never​ up, Wisconsin was ​never​ up, Pennsylvania was ​never​ up…the published polls were correct. Nate Silver was correct. But the Republican establishment polls were wrong.”


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Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Le Pew ~ Dems Panic Over One Stinky Poll - Updated

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Romney’s Strong Debate Performance Erases Obama’s Lead
GOP Challenger Viewed as Candidate with New Ideas
~ Headline on Pew Polling Research Center

Did Obama Just Throw The Entire Election Away?
The Pew poll is devastating, just devastating. Before the debate, Obama had a 51 - 43 lead; now, Romney has a 49 - 45 lead. That's a simply unprecedented reversal for a candidate in October. Before Obama had leads on every policy issue and personal characteristic; now Romney leads in almost all of them. Obama's performance gave Romney a 12 point swing! I repeat: a 12 point swing.
. . . A sitting president does not recover from being obliterated on substance, style and likability in the first debate and get much of a chance to come back. He has, at a critical moment, deeply depressed his base and his supporters and independents are flocking to Romney in droves.
. . . I'm trying to see a silver lining. But when a president self-immolates on live TV, and his opponent shines with lies and smiles, and a record number of people watch, it's hard to see how a president and his party recover.
~ Nearly Hysterical Democrat Andrew Sullivan, columnist on The Daily Beast

Should Obama Supporters Start Freaking Out?
. . . The undisputed captain of Team Freakout is Newsweek’s Andrew Sullivan, the longtime Obama supporter who has written a number of cover stories advocating for his campaign. His post-debate analysis of how Obama “plummeted into near-oblivion” is so spectacularly glum that it spawned its own parody account on Twitter, @SullyPanic (sample tweet: “After Wednesday’s debate I’m leaving the Catholic church. God is dead.”)
~ Talking Points Memo

From the Fake Andrew Sullivan on Twitter:







~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~







Calm down, Democrats. This is about winning the electoral college, not national polls.
. . . National tracking polls are overrated. They were overrated when they had President Obama leading the race and they are overrated now that some polls are showing Mitt Romney ahead.
There is no polling conspiracy. It’s all about perspective: The race for the White House is going to be very close and the tracking polls are going to swing back and forth for the next three weeks until election day.
~ Zerlina Maxwell, New York Daily News

DON'T THINK JUST BREAK THINGS
New Pew Poll Shows End Of Democratic Party As We Know It
~ Headline on Wonkette

OMGINDEPENDENTSPEWPEWPEW
~ comment by borninatrailer on Wonkette

I, for one, welcome our new Pollster Overlords.
~ comment by ttommyunger on Wonkette

Help us, Nate Silver, you are our only hope!
~ comment by gullywompr on Wonkette

We're all Big Bird now.
~ comment by Isyaignert on Wonkette

Obama is tanking in the Polls
. . . We needed Obama win that debate. Medicare, the Supreme Court, gay rights, tax fairness, the social safety net, all of it was on the line during the debate and Obama was either too lazy or too busy or just too arrogant to engage. He is still asking me for money. I guess I am expected to give another $10 to his wayward campaign. I don't know why I would do that. Why?
Why would I give money to a politician who can't get up for the debate that might be recorded as the debate that shaped the 21st century?
. . . his is bad people, really really really bad and Obama needs to wake the f*** up!
~ themoderateman on Daily Kos

This is bad, folks. This is really bad.
I don't know if we have time to recover.
Maybe we should have voted for Hillary. She would have shown up in that debate.
. . . I have defended the President since 2008. I have given probably more than most of you have and am currently volunteering at least twice a week. This won't continue if he sucks in his next debate.
I can't defend a guy who won't defend himself.
~ comments by willynel on Daily Kos

oh noes! we're dooooomed!
clutchs pearls, faints.
~ comment by terrypinder on Daily Kos

The sky is falling
don your tinfoil hats now !!!
~ comment by indycam on Daily Kos

This is not some fly by night Gravis pollster. Pew is the real deal. Obama really screwed the pooch. It almost looks like voters were just looking for reason to ditch him, and now they have one.
~ comment by NorthBronxDem on Daily Kos

Bounces this late in the election tend to stick
I can't believe how many people keep sticking their head in the sand. This is unequivocally bad news for Obama.
~ comment by JohnAdams999 on Daily Kos

Joe Biden, save us now!
~ comment by Calidad on Daily Kos

. . . I respect Pew... Pray to God...this time they are wrong...the overall effect on this is not good...dampens enthusiasm among dems. By gosh would the MSM hype this...
-Romney has smelled blood. He'd go in for the kill...
-Obama has one last chance...to reverse this or we are toast...
~ comment by tuma on Daily Kos

The whole topic of conversation this weekend all over the news shows was essentially, "Does Barack Obama even want to be President?".
If the feeling in the air continues to revolve around whether our guy is spent after having been one of the best janitors this nation has ever seen, than today's polls are meaningless compared to where they'll be by the end of the week.
With his debate win, Romney is given a chance to pivot now and start speaking of his vision for our greatness and blah, blah, blah. Meanwhile, it could very well be that our side doubles down on attacking Romney as a flip-flopper. Doing so helps him come back at us with, "They're desperate and out of ideas, and that's why they're attacking me."
Obama's back is to the wall now. This is his last election. There are a number of ways he can screw this up, but there is only one way for him to succeed, and it's to go bigger and farther and more visionary than Romney.
~ MovieJay on Daily Kos

PANIC! PANIC! OH NOES! OMFG!
Oh, uh...that electoral college map thing. Never mind.
~ comment by Dracowyrm on Daily Kos

Why is it a "freak out" to recognize reality? . . . Obama blew the debate for those who wanted to see who wouldn't blow it. Period. It doesn't matter that we here all saw Obama trying to remain even-keeled and factual under the onslaught of Romney's rapid-fire Gish Gallop of utter bullsh*t. What matters is that a very large number of the somehow still undecided voting public saw the President shrink and wither under a more forceful and powerful Romney. We saw lies; the undecideds saw a command performance.
Why does recognizing that make us Chicken Littles and handwringers and pearl-clutchers and couch-fainters?
. . . Obama's only hope is that a few folks at the townhall broach the subject of Romney's lies, thereby throwing Obama a bone he can sink his teeth into. In the absence of that--or if Obama turns in another tepid, tired, I-wish-I-were-anywhere-else-but-here performance--he's screwed. And that's neither handwringing, pearl-clutching, nor couch-fainting; it's reality.
Obama blew it. Period. Agree with it, or don't. But for cryin' out loud stop with the "Obama got this chill the f*** out" bullsh*t, would you guys?
~ comment by Neapolitan on Daily Kos

Face it -- We might not win now
I've been working in and around politics for 25 years, and I have never seen as bad a week as Barack Obama just had.
And yet you folks go on cheerleading, as if this was part of some grand strategy, or as if Obama has some magic ace up his sleeve. I'll let you in on a little secret: there is no grand strategy, there is no ace up his sleeve, and we're staring down a very, very tough month.
. . . Look, I'd love to be more positive. But . . . we're going to get our asses kicked.
~ Johnthorpe on Daily Kos

...The problem is that a relatively passive PBO "lost" the debate with the help of MSM framing, crank snap pollsters, and Romney had a good debate strategy (lying works so f*** it) while Obama was not prepared for some of the rapid flip-flops. That is the problem!
~ comment by lastman on Daily Kos

First it was Obama had a fantastic, excellent debate. Then it was all part of a master jujitsu chess plan. Now the pollsters are corrupt.
Seriously? Really?
Look, there are pollsters out there who are crap. Rasmussen comes to mind. We Ask America. This Gravis whatever it is. But there are pollsters who have spent years building up a solid reputation for thoroughness and accuracy. You cant trash a good pollster when said pollster says something you don't want to hear. Nor can you tout a crap pollster when it shows something you like.
This is nutcase territory.
~ brooklynbadboy on Daily Kos



. . . it’s one thing to give a poll a lot of weight, and another to become so enthralled with it that you dismiss all other evidence. If you can trust yourself to take the polls in stride, then I would encourage you to do so. If your impression of the race is changing radically every few minutes, however, then you’re best off looking at the forecasts and projections that we and our competitors publish, along with Vegas betting lines and prediction markets.
All of these methods have slightly different ways of accounting for new information, but they do involve people who are risking either money or reputation to get it right, and who have systematic ways to weigh the evidence rather than doing so on an ad hoc basis.
~ Nate Silver, 538 Blog on NYT

That’s my party: Irrational overconfidence followed by irrational despair.
~ Democratic political consultant Jim Jordan, quoted by Politico

I was talking with an old friend who is with one of the nonpartisan polling outfits (and who also happens to be a very good and fair-minded pollster). We were discussing the large shifts in some of the polls on the presidential election and the feedback he receives whenever he puts out new numbers that make one side or the other unhappy. He offered an observation so priceless that it needs to be widely shared.
When you give conservatives bad news in your polls, they want to kill you,” he said. “When you give liberals bad news in your polls, they want to kill themselves.”
I am protecting his identity because I don’t want him to get any additional phone calls. I would only add: Buck up, liberals!
~ E.J. Dionne on Washington Post
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Friday, September 28, 2012

Rush, Dick and Rove Skewed into Frenzy by Polls - Updated

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Rush Limbaugh, September 26, 2012
RUSH: Folks, there are a couple of polls out there today that are just outrageous. One is the CBS/New York Times poll. The other is the Washington Post poll. I'm telling you: They are irresponsible. They are designed to do exactly what I have warned you to be vigilant about, and that is to depress you and suppress your vote. These two polls today are designed to convince everybody this election is over.
. . . there could be a lot of reasons for this. Voter suppression, voter depression, set up the possibility of allegations of voter fraud.
They have all these polls with Obama running away with this, and then say Romney wins. Guess what happens? People blow a gasket on the left. There's also early voting going on, and they know this stuff is not reported to reflect opinion. They're trying to shape opinion with these polls.

Dick Morris on Sean Hannity, Fox News
Dick Morris: [Romney] at the moment is in a very strong position. I believe if the election were held today, Romney would win with four or five points. I believe he would carry Florida, Ohio, Virginia. I believe he would carry Nevada. I believe he would carry Pennsylvania.
Sean Hannity: Aw, come on!
Dick Morris: And I believe he would be competitive in Michigan. I just saw a poll in Pennsylvania by a group that I've hired in the past and I trust their polling. Two points behind. And Rasmussen has it five points behind.
People need to understand that the polling this year is the worst it's ever been.
Because this is the first election where if I tell you who is going to vote, I can tell you how they're going to vote. You tell me that you're black or Latino or a college kid or a single mother, I'll tell you how you're going to vote.
And if you tell me you're over 65, you're a man or a married white woman, I'll tell you how you're going to vote. And I'll be right 2 out of 3 times.
Therefore the issue is who's going to vote. Polling is very good at saying how you're gonna vote, it's very bad at saying who is going to vote. And the models these folks are using are crazy. They assume a Democratic edge of six or seven points. I'm assuming a 3 point Democratic edge, and even that is very likely an overstatement.



Karl Rove on Bill O'Reilly, transcript via Fox News:
O'REILLY: . . . Are these polls dishonest?
ROVE: No. Look, we endow them with a false scientific precision they simply don't have. If you've got nine points more Democrats than Republicans and you're nine points more --
(CROSSTALK)

O'REILLY: You you're going to have a poll that reflects that.
ROVE: -- yes, nine points more Obama. Think about this. Romney and Obama get each roughly the same percentage of Republicans and Democrats as -- as their opponent. That is to say they carry their -- their base overwhelmingly. Romney, among Independents is winning by three points.
So -- so if Romney is winning the Independents and winning the Republicans do you think in a battle ground state like Florida, he's nine points down and the answer is no....

Rove-OReilly

ROVE: . . . So look, we've got to be careful about, you know, we have a proliferation of these polls. There have been 87 national polls in the last 30 days. That's more polls than were run in the last six months of the 1980 presidential race.

O'REILLY: All right.
ROVE: Last week -- last week alone, we had 51 state level polls; and the week before that, 41.

O'REILLY: I understand that but -- but here -- here -- look, from my point of view as a news analyst and I believe that the folks know I'm honest in that regard, when news agencies like the CBS News on the radio report the polling and it shows that Barack Obama has leapt out to a big lead in Florida and Ohio, that gets inside people's minds. They remember that. And that can only help the President. That helps the President.
ROVE: Sure.
O'REILLY: Because the perception is he is going to be the winner.

. . . . . . O'REILLY: All right, real quick, real quick, your board, the Karl Rove board where is the race in Ohio and Florida in your opinion?

ROVE: Well, toss-up in both states.

O'REILLY: Toss-up? It could go either way at this point in history.

ROVE: Sure.

O'REILLY: All right, Mr. Rove. We appreciate that.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Fox's laughable case for Romney
. . . Rove's role is nuttily professorial. He has adopted one of those erasable white slates popularized by the late Tim Russert. On it he scribbles integers with plus or minus signs. These, he alleges, are the amounts being added to President Barack Obama and/or subtracted from Romney by such daredevil organizations as The New York Times, The Washington Post, CBS, NBC, CNN, Gallup and the co-opted poll-averagers at the website RealClearPolitics. Bottom line: This vast conspiracy is downgrading Romney three to nine points by using screens that overstate the votes of blacks, Latinos, Asians, women and the young.
Morris, who is beginning to bear a waxen resemblance to Orson Welles, explained, I think, that pollsters cheat by using false baseline figures from previous elections. Morris didn't have time to explicate fully how every news organization except Fox has signed up to help Obama by disseminating these cooked figures. Even so, O'Reilly thanked Morris for explaining polling mysteries he said he had not previously understood.
. . . I think there's a secret behind O'Reilly's trademark smirk. Were it in his interest to say what's on his mind about the candidates' performance to date, he'd almost certainly admit that Obama has come on like a superstar candidate of the Reagan ilk, and so far Romney is one of the biggest duds in post-World War II presidential elections.
~ Howell Raines on CNN


Conservative blogger Dean Chambers ... analyzed these polls favoring President Obama, and then reached the scientific conclusion that they "just didn't look right." So Chambers set up his own polling site, "UnskewedPolls.com," where he unskewed all the national polls by skewing them in favor of Romney - and surprisingly found that Mitt had nearly an 8 point lead! And that doesn't even count the margin of error.
And given how many errors Romney's made, I think he should get all of it.
No surprise, folks, this "feels accurate" polling has caught the attention of some GOP intellectuals, like Texas Governor Rick Perry, who tweeted: "Always nice to get unfiltered, or in this case unskewed, information." Amen! If we had only had more accurate polling during the primaries, Perry could have dropped out way sooner.
~ Stephen Colbert

GOP partisans shouldn’t worry about a conspiracy. They should worry that this is a snapshot of how Americans feel about the two major parties.
It’s not the polls, it’s the policies. Now that’s a reason for Republicans to be depressed.
~ Eugene Robinson on The Moderate Voice

After four years of relentlessly condemning Obama as an historic failure and all around bad person, conservatives are desperately trying to explain the disconnect between their dire Obama denunciations and the on-the-ground political reality about Obama's polling surge. They need a scapegoat, and pollsters have been cast in the role.
. . . An Obama victory will confirm that bloggers and talk shows hosts were right all along because the skewed polls worked (as the conspiracy intended) and drained Republican enthusiasm. And that's why Obama won re-election: Not enough Republicans voted!
~ Eric Boehlert on Media Matters

The funniest prank that Fox News plays on viewers occurs every other night, when freelance strategist Dick Morris -- a former Clintonite who now despises Democrats -- lurches in front of a camera and explains that Republicans will win everything.
. . . According to Morris, literally 100 percent of "undecided" voters will eventually vote against Barack Obama. Leaving aside how the theory ignores spillover to write-ins and third-party candidates, this is one of the stupidest things I've ever heard. Nate Silver, bless him, has already explained why the "incumbent rule" doesn't actually exist.
. . . There's literally no evidence that undecided voters will break the way he says they're breaking. But he's telling an audience of voters -- and more importantly for him, potential consumers -- that the media is covering up how Mitt Romney's winning the election. It's silly, and at the same time it lays the ground for endless paranoia if Romney doesn't win.
~ David Weigel on Slate

It's all about the enemy. Of course it starts with the media, starts with the liberal media. The liberal media wants Mitt Romney to lose, its in Barack Obama's back pocket, so on, and so forth. Now it extends to the pollsters. Pollsters are supposedly riggin' these things.
Nobody's rigging anything. Nobody. In fact what the polls are showing is that fewer and fewer people who are being called by pollsters want to call themselves Republicans.
~ Michael Tomasky of Daily Beast on Hardball

Why would anybody ever ever ever, I don't care who pays them, ever listen to what Dick Morris has to say about anything? Especially when he says 'all the polls' including Fox's own polls are not to be trusted because he doesn't like the numbers. He doesn't like what they're saying this week.
~ ~ Chris Matthews on Hardball

You imagine that back in the Republican Green Room there's this giant crack pipe that they are all hitting on constantly - hittin' it hard! . . . Dick Morris bought the pipe!
. . . The rank and file literally believe some of this nonsense. They believe that evolution didn't happen, global warming's a hoax, Obama's a Kenyan, But people like Dick Morris, and Sean Hannity for that matter, who've spread alot of this propaganda, they know better than this! And there's a method to their madness here. They're not delusional, their dishonest. They're not crazy, they're craven.
What they're trying to do and accomplish is to say in advance that if President Obama wins this election, it's because the pollsters suppress the Republican vote. It's therefore an illegimate election, he's not really President. They're settin' the table for that.
~ Ron Reagan on Hardball

. . . reputable national polls out there, show that Obama is ahead in most of these key battleground states. That's obviously disconcerting to a lot of Republicans. Some of them, like Karl Rove, for example, have repeatedly gone out there and suggested that these polls are biased against the Republicans because they're oversampling Democrats, for example, as opposed to Republicans. And as a result, don't trust these polls, they're not reliable. So it's sort of convenient for a lot of these Republicans, like Karl Rove, to go after the NBC poll or the ABC poll or CNN polls.
But what they don't say is that the FOX News polls are showing almost exactly the same thing. FOX has some good polls. . . . You don't hear them complaining about the FOX News polls. They're complaining about the others, so there is an imbalance there.
~ Wolf Blitzer on CNN



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