Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Le Pew ~ Dems Panic Over One Stinky Poll - Updated

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Romney’s Strong Debate Performance Erases Obama’s Lead
GOP Challenger Viewed as Candidate with New Ideas
~ Headline on Pew Polling Research Center

Did Obama Just Throw The Entire Election Away?
The Pew poll is devastating, just devastating. Before the debate, Obama had a 51 - 43 lead; now, Romney has a 49 - 45 lead. That's a simply unprecedented reversal for a candidate in October. Before Obama had leads on every policy issue and personal characteristic; now Romney leads in almost all of them. Obama's performance gave Romney a 12 point swing! I repeat: a 12 point swing.
. . . A sitting president does not recover from being obliterated on substance, style and likability in the first debate and get much of a chance to come back. He has, at a critical moment, deeply depressed his base and his supporters and independents are flocking to Romney in droves.
. . . I'm trying to see a silver lining. But when a president self-immolates on live TV, and his opponent shines with lies and smiles, and a record number of people watch, it's hard to see how a president and his party recover.
~ Nearly Hysterical Democrat Andrew Sullivan, columnist on The Daily Beast

Should Obama Supporters Start Freaking Out?
. . . The undisputed captain of Team Freakout is Newsweek’s Andrew Sullivan, the longtime Obama supporter who has written a number of cover stories advocating for his campaign. His post-debate analysis of how Obama “plummeted into near-oblivion” is so spectacularly glum that it spawned its own parody account on Twitter, @SullyPanic (sample tweet: “After Wednesday’s debate I’m leaving the Catholic church. God is dead.”)
~ Talking Points Memo

From the Fake Andrew Sullivan on Twitter:







~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~







Calm down, Democrats. This is about winning the electoral college, not national polls.
. . . National tracking polls are overrated. They were overrated when they had President Obama leading the race and they are overrated now that some polls are showing Mitt Romney ahead.
There is no polling conspiracy. It’s all about perspective: The race for the White House is going to be very close and the tracking polls are going to swing back and forth for the next three weeks until election day.
~ Zerlina Maxwell, New York Daily News

DON'T THINK JUST BREAK THINGS
New Pew Poll Shows End Of Democratic Party As We Know It
~ Headline on Wonkette

OMGINDEPENDENTSPEWPEWPEW
~ comment by borninatrailer on Wonkette

I, for one, welcome our new Pollster Overlords.
~ comment by ttommyunger on Wonkette

Help us, Nate Silver, you are our only hope!
~ comment by gullywompr on Wonkette

We're all Big Bird now.
~ comment by Isyaignert on Wonkette

Obama is tanking in the Polls
. . . We needed Obama win that debate. Medicare, the Supreme Court, gay rights, tax fairness, the social safety net, all of it was on the line during the debate and Obama was either too lazy or too busy or just too arrogant to engage. He is still asking me for money. I guess I am expected to give another $10 to his wayward campaign. I don't know why I would do that. Why?
Why would I give money to a politician who can't get up for the debate that might be recorded as the debate that shaped the 21st century?
. . . his is bad people, really really really bad and Obama needs to wake the f*** up!
~ themoderateman on Daily Kos

This is bad, folks. This is really bad.
I don't know if we have time to recover.
Maybe we should have voted for Hillary. She would have shown up in that debate.
. . . I have defended the President since 2008. I have given probably more than most of you have and am currently volunteering at least twice a week. This won't continue if he sucks in his next debate.
I can't defend a guy who won't defend himself.
~ comments by willynel on Daily Kos

oh noes! we're dooooomed!
clutchs pearls, faints.
~ comment by terrypinder on Daily Kos

The sky is falling
don your tinfoil hats now !!!
~ comment by indycam on Daily Kos

This is not some fly by night Gravis pollster. Pew is the real deal. Obama really screwed the pooch. It almost looks like voters were just looking for reason to ditch him, and now they have one.
~ comment by NorthBronxDem on Daily Kos

Bounces this late in the election tend to stick
I can't believe how many people keep sticking their head in the sand. This is unequivocally bad news for Obama.
~ comment by JohnAdams999 on Daily Kos

Joe Biden, save us now!
~ comment by Calidad on Daily Kos

. . . I respect Pew... Pray to God...this time they are wrong...the overall effect on this is not good...dampens enthusiasm among dems. By gosh would the MSM hype this...
-Romney has smelled blood. He'd go in for the kill...
-Obama has one last chance...to reverse this or we are toast...
~ comment by tuma on Daily Kos

The whole topic of conversation this weekend all over the news shows was essentially, "Does Barack Obama even want to be President?".
If the feeling in the air continues to revolve around whether our guy is spent after having been one of the best janitors this nation has ever seen, than today's polls are meaningless compared to where they'll be by the end of the week.
With his debate win, Romney is given a chance to pivot now and start speaking of his vision for our greatness and blah, blah, blah. Meanwhile, it could very well be that our side doubles down on attacking Romney as a flip-flopper. Doing so helps him come back at us with, "They're desperate and out of ideas, and that's why they're attacking me."
Obama's back is to the wall now. This is his last election. There are a number of ways he can screw this up, but there is only one way for him to succeed, and it's to go bigger and farther and more visionary than Romney.
~ MovieJay on Daily Kos

PANIC! PANIC! OH NOES! OMFG!
Oh, uh...that electoral college map thing. Never mind.
~ comment by Dracowyrm on Daily Kos

Why is it a "freak out" to recognize reality? . . . Obama blew the debate for those who wanted to see who wouldn't blow it. Period. It doesn't matter that we here all saw Obama trying to remain even-keeled and factual under the onslaught of Romney's rapid-fire Gish Gallop of utter bullsh*t. What matters is that a very large number of the somehow still undecided voting public saw the President shrink and wither under a more forceful and powerful Romney. We saw lies; the undecideds saw a command performance.
Why does recognizing that make us Chicken Littles and handwringers and pearl-clutchers and couch-fainters?
. . . Obama's only hope is that a few folks at the townhall broach the subject of Romney's lies, thereby throwing Obama a bone he can sink his teeth into. In the absence of that--or if Obama turns in another tepid, tired, I-wish-I-were-anywhere-else-but-here performance--he's screwed. And that's neither handwringing, pearl-clutching, nor couch-fainting; it's reality.
Obama blew it. Period. Agree with it, or don't. But for cryin' out loud stop with the "Obama got this chill the f*** out" bullsh*t, would you guys?
~ comment by Neapolitan on Daily Kos

Face it -- We might not win now
I've been working in and around politics for 25 years, and I have never seen as bad a week as Barack Obama just had.
And yet you folks go on cheerleading, as if this was part of some grand strategy, or as if Obama has some magic ace up his sleeve. I'll let you in on a little secret: there is no grand strategy, there is no ace up his sleeve, and we're staring down a very, very tough month.
. . . Look, I'd love to be more positive. But . . . we're going to get our asses kicked.
~ Johnthorpe on Daily Kos

...The problem is that a relatively passive PBO "lost" the debate with the help of MSM framing, crank snap pollsters, and Romney had a good debate strategy (lying works so f*** it) while Obama was not prepared for some of the rapid flip-flops. That is the problem!
~ comment by lastman on Daily Kos

First it was Obama had a fantastic, excellent debate. Then it was all part of a master jujitsu chess plan. Now the pollsters are corrupt.
Seriously? Really?
Look, there are pollsters out there who are crap. Rasmussen comes to mind. We Ask America. This Gravis whatever it is. But there are pollsters who have spent years building up a solid reputation for thoroughness and accuracy. You cant trash a good pollster when said pollster says something you don't want to hear. Nor can you tout a crap pollster when it shows something you like.
This is nutcase territory.
~ brooklynbadboy on Daily Kos



. . . it’s one thing to give a poll a lot of weight, and another to become so enthralled with it that you dismiss all other evidence. If you can trust yourself to take the polls in stride, then I would encourage you to do so. If your impression of the race is changing radically every few minutes, however, then you’re best off looking at the forecasts and projections that we and our competitors publish, along with Vegas betting lines and prediction markets.
All of these methods have slightly different ways of accounting for new information, but they do involve people who are risking either money or reputation to get it right, and who have systematic ways to weigh the evidence rather than doing so on an ad hoc basis.
~ Nate Silver, 538 Blog on NYT

That’s my party: Irrational overconfidence followed by irrational despair.
~ Democratic political consultant Jim Jordan, quoted by Politico

I was talking with an old friend who is with one of the nonpartisan polling outfits (and who also happens to be a very good and fair-minded pollster). We were discussing the large shifts in some of the polls on the presidential election and the feedback he receives whenever he puts out new numbers that make one side or the other unhappy. He offered an observation so priceless that it needs to be widely shared.
When you give conservatives bad news in your polls, they want to kill you,” he said. “When you give liberals bad news in your polls, they want to kill themselves.”
I am protecting his identity because I don’t want him to get any additional phone calls. I would only add: Buck up, liberals!
~ E.J. Dionne on Washington Post
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